Guy Louis Rocha pulled into Dennis Hof's World Famous Bunny Ranch and parked near the front door. He turned to me. "You want to go in?" Ah, no, I replied, thinking the clock on my investigative reporting h
ad expired for the day. Rocha, Nevada State Archivist, graciously volunteered to show me around last February, from the silver-domed Statehouse to that famous, legal brothel on the outskirts of Carson City. In his passion for his state and his job, he's acted as a tour guide for scores of journalists since. With his earnest nature and wealth of knowledge, he reminded me instantly of New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner. I rolled into Carson City ahead of the media horde nearly a year ago, before Democrats held their first presidential forum with their new early caucus. I had Rocha to myself. We listened to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., whisper a mousy, provincial address to his state's Legislature. I threw numerous questions at him over dinner and during our drive to the brothel. Guy Louis Rocha might ring a bell for you, as he's been on all the networks this week in advance of tomorrow's caucus. His schedule is packed, but Rocha still took the time to answer some of my email questions yesterday. The GOP caucus has been a snoozer, except for the past 48 hours. He says the Democratic caucus is "an all-out war." As I'm in NH today, here's the exclusive Rocha Report from Nevada, in his own words:
The Clinton supporters in Nevada are overwhelmingly led by the old Democratic guard, although the Culinary Local 226 endorsement of Obama has upset the applecart. The Obama supporter
s are principally the new guard, many younger folks but also older folks who dislike the state party machine and the Clinton legacy and tactics.
On the second point, the NV Republican Caucus is not pivotal for the candidates. However, Romney has a lot of big backers in Nevada, including former Printer of the US Bruce James who lives at Lake Tahoe. If Nevada is not a Romney win, it's a blow to the national campaign. If McCain wins Nevada, he should have the momentum going into the South Carolina Primary. Giuliani has his supporters in Nevada and he needs a win badly.
On the Democratic side, the caucus has taken on epic proportions. I wouldn't call it make or break for Clinton, Obama or Edwards, but with the split results for Obama and Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, Nevada could mean a significant momentum swing for the winner. Edwards has decent support in Nevada, particularly among unions other than the Culinary and Teachers' unions, however, he will not win in Nevada. His fight, as I see it, is to have a strong showing in Nevada like he did in Iowa, to win the state he was born in, South Carolina, and get a victory under his belt.
Looking back, perhaps Nevada will be a turning point--it is definitely more representative of the US demographic than Iowa or NH. Yet, it is still relatively early in caucus/primary season and anything could happen. Just the same, Nevada has an opportunity to establish trend lines leading up to Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.