Great Expectations or Poli Sci-Fi?

   Jim Splaine, the Honorable Representative from Portsmouth, offered rosy predictions for his Democratic Party before the 2006 landslide and partisan seppuku. Wicked rosy. Now, with the effects of a national election about to course through New Hampshire politics, Splaine is rolling out what would have seemed political sci-fi a few years ago. He predicts a continued Democrat surge. Get this: He says his party could capture 19 of the 24 state Senate seats. His is not fuzzy math, he insists. Rather, he contends his numbers are based on a reasonable guess of voter turnout since 2006 and those voters who have remained on the party rolls. GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen has a greatly different read on the political landscape. He argues Democrats in Concord have lost touch with everyday Granite Staters, especially on taxes and family values. But the Iraq war, soaring gas prices and a bruised economy will greatly influence the electorate in November, according to Splaine, a long-time member of the House Election Law Committee and author of the law 33 years ago to require the New Hampshire Primary to be held at least a week before a similar contest. Splaine's predictions do not reference the debates on the state budget and other local issues. And if national issues resonate at the polls, one may ask, isn't his party in majority control of Congress? The do-nothing Congress?